Mahora Gakuen Dai Mahorasai

The arrival of the peak: predictions or visions?

Sweden - graph of the epidemic curve in week 36 (from 31 / 8 to 6 / 09).

On 10 September, it said in the "Stockholm News

Source: http:/ / www.stockholmnews.com/more.aspx?NID=3941

Translation:

The peak of influenza is expected in two weeks

in Sweden is thought that the influenza A (H1N1), also called swine flu, reached its peak between ca. two weeks. The Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, had studied the epidemiological curve of New Zealand, because this country like Sweden with regard to population density, where 11% of the population is infected. "This is much less than our initial estimates," said Annika Linde, epidemiologist, but adds that there could be a second wave in the spring.

Now of course we are all really curious if the peak was reached two weeks later, as expected from epidemiology, that is, in week 39.

wave is the trend so far. The arrow indicates when the peak was expected. Keep an eye on the trend of the curves that refer to previous seasons that are dominant in the top graph but not for long ...

week 37:

week 38:

week 39

week 40

week 41

week 42

week 43

week 44

week 45

week 46

week 47

weeks 48

For an even better picture of the situation here is the graph showing the number of cases in different regions of Sweden.

Source: http://www.smittskyddsinstitutet.se/publikationer/smis-nyhetsbrev/influensarapporter/sasongen-20092010/

In Italy we are now in a situation where some say that we have achieved / exceeded the peak. Here is the graph of the current situation:

If I think, however, the trend of the epidemic curve of Sweden did not feel like saying that we have reached the peak, even considering that we still have the 'winter ahead of us.

Unfortunately, there are graphs depicting the distribution throughout the country, it would be very useful.